Instead of a slight increase, likely after the failure of 2022, 2023 decided to update the highs of a successful 2021
The first half of 2023 did not show anything significant in the Moscow housing market. But in the second half – September and August – there was an explosive growth in demand, which was caused by an increase in key and then mortgage rates. Sales reached record levels, and then a decline followed. But the momentum gained was still enough to demonstrate the maximum in all the years. According to Rosreestr, in January-October, 131.1 thousand transactions were concluded in the capital in new buildings and 144.7 thousand in secondary housing. This is a record for ten months of the year. The results outperformed the same period in 2022 by about a third: 29% and 34%, respectively. It turned out to be not difficult: 2022 was not very successful. But the figures for the previously record year 2021 were also broken: by 14% and 6%. Experts from the Elite.ru portal learned from market analysts what they remember about 2023 and what events they can celebrate.
Partner of the consulting company NF Group Andrey Soloviev:
– One of the key trends of the past year can be called the recovery of demand in the primary residential real estate market, which was also observed in the elite segment. The observed market revival in the second quarter translated into a confident increase in consumer activity in the second half of the year, and pent-up demand made it possible to compensate for periods of cooling. At the same time, there is a return of indicators to the level of 2021 – a recovery from the stress that buyers experienced at the beginning of 2022.
This was facilitated by the rise in exchange rates and the desire to convert savings into square meters. Given the limited use of other investment vehicles, there has been an increase in interest in real estate investments as a less risky option. The threshold for entry into new buildings in the elite segment at the end of 2023 starts from 25 million rubles.
The next emerging trend is the gradual erosion of quality supply in the secondary market of luxury residential real estate. It was actively replenished with new properties throughout 2022-2023 due to the departure of some owners, the relocation of some listings from the rental category and the decision of many clients to sell property due to continued activity from potential buyers. Ready-made apartments in iconic locations of the city, corresponding to current trends in the luxury housing market, were in particular demand.
Already in the third quarter of 2023, the expansion of exposure ceased, and there was a decrease in the volume of secondary supply by 9% per quarter. Nevertheless, the total number of apartments and apartments still remains quite high: at the end of September 2023, 11% higher than the same period last year. Considering the current trend towards purchasing finished housing, we should expect continued interest in the secondary market, but in the near future the demand here may no longer be so active.
Installment programs have become especially popular in the elite segment in 2023, acting as one of the measures to support demand, especially against the backdrop of rising mortgage prices. At the same time, there is an increase in their duration. If previously the duration of the installment plan provided under such transactions was usually about a year, now it is provided either for 2-3 years or until the completion of construction.
< p>Director of luxury real estate management at Metrium Premium Anna Radjabova:
– The past year has been successful for participants in the Moscow elite market. Contrary to the negative forecasts of a number of experts, the stagnation of 2022 gave way to confident growth of the segment in 2023. This is mainly due to the reorientation of clients from foreign markets to the capital. Some buyers have abandoned investments in European countries due to Western sanctions. Also, some clients switched to Moscow projects from the Dubai market, where significant signs of overheating are already observed. In addition, positive trends in the elite segment are associated with the launch of many new projects with interesting concepts in attractive locations. In fact, clients conclude most transactions in complexes that are at the excavation stage or, conversely, at a high stage of readiness. It is worth noting that the demand for turnkey housing with renovation and furnishing has increased among buyers.
Development Director of Rariteco Ekaterina Borisova:
– In the high-budget segment of the market in 2023 there were many new products, which will be what the outgoing year will be remembered for. 16 projects went on sale, and this is more than in 2022 or 2021. The last time so many premieres happened was in 2019. Supply volume increased by 24%. This is a very positive signal for the market, since in past years there was a certain stagnation in terms of its replenishment with new supply. Now the buyer of new elite and deluxe class buildings has plenty to choose from: 65 projects are put up for sale.
Increased supply stimulated demand. In the fall, a record was set over the past 1.5 years for the number of recorded transactions. The stabilization of the economy, the weakening of the ruble, and the refusal of buyers to invest in Western real estate markets have led to an increase in activity in Russia.
Many new players have appeared in the high-budget market of new buildings. Developers from other classes of housing, companies from the regions, and builders of commercial real estate have entered this segment. Expensive housing is becoming a trend: new buyers have appeared in this market niche. A generation of young and successful businessmen has grown up; import substitution and government orders contributed to the growth of regional economies, which brought business owners to the Moscow housing market. In other words, all the adversity of the past years gave a definite and positive result, modified the segment, and increased competition.
Prices generally continued to rise steadily. Now on average sq. meter in high-budget new buildings in Moscow is sold for 1.8 million rubles. In the deluxe class – 2.4 million rubles, in the elite class – 1.3 million rubles. The range of prices is quite wide, although at the start of sales in deluxe you can find projects for 2 million rubles. Also, for the first time in the Moscow real estate market, our company began monitoring trophy real estate. We formulated this concept, monitor the dynamics of prices and supply of collectible housing and see that the activity of developers in this niche is also growing.
Director of the Residential Real Estate Sales Department Group of Companies “Sum of Elements” Svetlana Bardina:
– For the Moscow primary market, 2023 turned out to be a period of strong recovery. Particularly positive results were observed in the premium segment, which was practically unaffected by the increase in the key rate. At the same time, his clients, who often have foreign currency savings, converted their savings into reliable real estate assets, which stimulated consumer activity. As a result, the number of DDU transactions in the premium market in 2023 increased by 52.9%. Particularly high sales rates were recorded in new liquid projects, for example, the first premium skyscraper with apartments in Moscow City. Sq. meter in the market of premium new buildings since the beginning of the year has risen in price by 7.7% – to 631.7 thousand rubles, and in our project – by 14%.
< p>Chief analyst of Miel Group of Companies Ekaterina Berezhnova:
– In our opinion, the last 3-4 years the real estate market could not be called calm and cloudless. But overall, 2023 turned out to be less of a shock than 2022. At the beginning of the year, the volume of supply of secondary urban real estate in Moscow was at the level of 46-48 thousand objects, at the moment – about 38 thousand. The decrease in supply is associated with a stable level of demand. In March-April, we saw an increase in supply even up to 51 thousand. Then the owners realized that the situation with the SVO was becoming protracted, they stopped waiting for the best moment and began to put properties up for sale.
At the same time, prices froze in early spring , and then began to accelerate. Since the beginning of the year, the cost of sq. meters in districts grew systematically and as a result increased by an average of 9%.
A significant event was the increase in the key rate at the end of October, but the market response to it was not as significant as it was in 2022, when the Central Bank raised the rate for the first time. It seems that market professionals are accustomed to such jumps, as are ordinary citizens.
Director of the mortgage center of the Miel Group of Companies Yulia Ibragimova:
– In general, over 10 months, Rosreestr for Moscow recorded the maximum result for all years of statistics in the number of mortgage transactions – 116.4 thousand. Moscow also maintains a leading position among Russian regions in terms of preferential mortgage loans issued. Their volume in January-October 2023 amounted to 679.8 billion rubles – 19.6% of the all-Russian volume of preferential mortgages.
There is evidence that in October banks sharply increased the issuance of mortgages under state programs. In November-December, a situation is possible in which 70-80% of all issued loans will be preferential (during the year this share was at the level of 35-50%). By the end of November, rates on market programs in some banks were approaching 16.5-17%, with an average weighted rate on preferential mortgages of 8%. There is an expectation of a further increase in rates on all basic mortgage programs (this will especially affect the secondary real estate market).
Founder of the Best-Novostroy company Irina Dobrokhotova:
– This year will be remembered as a period of market recovery after the difficult 2022. Demand has increased, resulting in a noticeable increase in transactions; new interesting projects were released in all segments, while the volume of supply began to decline.
The most significant event was the increase in the key rate, which was naturally followed by an increase in mortgage rates. The market was also affected by the tightening of conditions for preferential mortgages. All of the above caused an increase in the activity of buyers who sought to use existing approvals as quickly as possible at the old, relatively comfortable rates. These “old” approvals became a strong driver for the new buildings market in the fall.
The share of compact apartments on display (up to 25 sq. meters) is still very high. Buyers' demand is mainly focused on lots of 30-50 sq. m. meters.
Despite numerous forecasts last year for falling prices, Moscow real estate continued to rise in price. Thus, according to the analytical system bnmap.pro, the average cost of an apartment in the old borders of Moscow in January 2023 was 23.4 million rubles, and now it is 29.3 million rubles.
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