Where to invest money in 2022: stocks, currency, new buildings

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Buying dollars in the current situation is a lottery. Traditionally for Russia, the main refuge for investors is the real estate market “/>

There is a new crisis in Russia: the ruble has fallen, the stock market has collapsed. And in both cases, experts do not exclude the second bottom. One of the largest international rating agencies Standard & Poors has downgraded our country's long-term credit rating to CC, the third category from the bottom, meaning a default is more than likely. And you can be 90% sure that the Russian stock market will fall even lower.

Currency is more difficult. A number of experts assure that the ruble will continue to fall to the level of 150-200 rubles per dollar, but everything is not so clear-cut here. The Bank of Russia has already raised its key rate, which will help curb the growth of the dollar. And in the future, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will make every effort to contain the growth of the exchange rate. A new round of government inflation is not needed. In general, buying dollars in the current situation is a lottery in which the chances of winning are 50%. Another thing is that today it is also not easy to purchase currency without a commission.

And traditionally for our country the real estate market remains the main refuge for private investors. However, some developers understood this and began to raise prices. As analysts of the NDV Supermarket Real Estate agency noted, if during February of this year the prices for new buildings in the capital rose by only 2.5-3%, then after the aggravation of the political situation, housing in individual projects in the primary market rose in price by 5-12% in just a week. %.

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The average price per square meter in February meters in the capital's new buildings of the mass segment, according to the company “Metrium”, increased by 5%, to 281 thousand rubles. As a result, the cost of one-room apartments in Moscow today averages 11.6 million rubles. Two-room apartments have risen in price to 16.3 million rubles, and three-room apartments have crossed the mark of 21 million rubles. According to the agency's analysts, this is the sharpest price increase since 2014.

In comfort-class new buildings, Irina Dobrokhotova, chairman of the board of directors of Best Novostroy, notes that today the average budget has grown to 13.7 million rubles, and in business-class residential complexes it reached almost 30 million.

It should be noted that the jump in prices could be much larger, because so far developers do not have a unified strategy. On the one hand, it is influenced by protective mortgage rates, on the other hand, by a surge in demand for housing. According to Cyan.Analitiki, developers began to massively rewrite prices from February 28, when the Central Bank raised the key rate. On this day, the cost of 13.4% of apartments in the Moscow region increased and decreased for 4.4%. Immediately after the record rise in mortgage prices, they began to offer discounts: on March 1, the price was reduced for 12.5% ​​of lots, and increased for 7.2%. On the same day, the activity of buyers increased one and a half to two times, so on March 2, a smaller part of the supply (15.5%) received a discount, and almost a third (28.5%) rose in price.

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And while some developers are announcing the upcoming unscheduled price increase, others, on the contrary, are talking about a “freeze”. Thus, in early March, Hals-Development group of companies issued a press release that it would continue selling apartments and cottages without changing prices. This is a total of 55 lots in three ready-made complexes and KP “Berezki River Village”. The A101 group of companies specializing in housing construction in New Moscow has also frozen prices in all its complexes. In total, she has six projects under construction and ready, they offer more than 4.1 thousand apartments. However, the moratorium on price increases will only last one month.

In the future, the share of developers raising prices will increase. But that depends on how long the hype lasts. For several weeks, it will be supported by mortgage borrowers with valid offers from banks and buyers who fall under the preferential family mortgage program, as well as ruble and foreign currency investors who transfer savings to real estate. Then demand is likely to decline. How much and for how long depends on government support for the industry and the new conditions for preferential mortgages, which the authorities promised to announce in the near future.

As for the secondary market, it initially reacted to the situation weaker. Many sellers are at a loss or even changed their minds about selling real estate. On February 28, March 1 and 2, when developers were actively rewriting prices, sellers changed prices for only 2-5% of all lots in the Moscow region. The secondary market does not have to wait for support and subsidy programs, so a greater price reduction is possible in this segment.

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