The city authorities published the first list of houses for voting within the framework of the renovation program of the five-story housing stock
Moscow officials decided to rid the city of five-story buildings, of which there are about 8 thousand in Moscow. So far, there are 4.5 thousand houses on the list. If they are all demolished, then about 1 million people will be resettled. For comparison, let's imagine that all residents of Perm or Voronezh move to a new place of residence. However, the program raises a number of questions and, most importantly, who is lobbying for this campaign and why? Moreover, the lists of the first houses that officials propose to demolish have already been published for voting.
Putin and five-story buildings
The resettlement from the Khrushchevs began under Luzhkov, about 15 years ago. During this time, about 300 thousand people moved from five-story buildings to new houses. And there were no indignations and protests. Therefore, the new resettlement program is being presented to the residents of the capital as a blessing: about a million Muscovites will move to live in new comfortable apartments, the market value of which is on average 30% higher than the old ones. Whereas the city is spending serious money: for the first three years alone, 300 billion rubles will be allocated from the Moscow budget for the renovation program. In total, according to the capital's officials, it will take 20 years and about 3.5 trillion rubles to demolish all five-story Khrushchev buildings in the capital. At the same time, the planned income of the capital's budget for 2017 is about 1.7 trillion rubles. However, outside experts are confident that in the process of implementing the program, its costs may increase by 30-40%. The officials explain the need for demolition by the fact that the Khrushchev houses have been in operation for about 50 years and a significant part of them are already emergency, and every year the number of such houses will grow. While it is technologically impossible to repair five-story buildings. Like, after a while, residents of five-story buildings should wait for the collapse of balconies, walls, ceilings and other unpleasant surprises.
As a result, 1 million residents of the capital, instead of rejoicing in the upcoming house-to-house, fearfully imagine the darkest prospects of moving
It would seem that residents of houses on the demolition list should only rejoice at the opportunity to improve their living conditions at the expense of the city budget. However, the authorities immediately intimidated Muscovites that there would be only one option for them to consider, and if they refused, the eviction would be carried out through the courts. The situation was aggravated by a package of legislative amendments that passed the first reading in the Duma in April, which will seriously simplify the eviction procedure. Moreover, a significant part of the five-storey fund is located in rather prestigious locations, in the vicinity of the Third Transport Ring. As a result, 1 million residents of the capital, instead of rejoicing in the upcoming housewarming, fearfully imagine the most gloomy prospects of moving and are waiting for a forced resettlement to New Moscow. And along with them, their relatives, friends and acquaintances are experiencing the problem – in general, all 12 million Muscovites – the issue of resettlement from Khrushchev left few people indifferent.
True, while residents of the capital are outraged by the new program, mostly on social networks, there have already been street protests, and in the near future, one should expect that rallies will become more frequent and large-scale. This is hardly what the authorities wanted a year before the presidential elections in the country ?! Perhaps this multi-step intrigue, calculated on the fact that when the indignation of the masses reaches its climax, the president will step on the stage and intercede for the Muscovites. Everything will slide down to the standard model for Russia: the tsar is good, the boyars are bad. Moreover, at the beginning of May, Vladimir Vladimirovich had already noticed that the renovation program of five-story buildings “should be implemented for the benefit of people, and not to harm.” True, the question is how Muscovites interpret this situation. They can also mix everyone into one heap – both a good tsar and bad boyars.
In fact, a monster will appear on the real estate market of the capital – a new state structure that will be able to do everything independently: build new projects, attract loans from banks for their implementation and sell real estate
On the other hand, specific officials can benefit from the demolition. Within the framework of the company for the demolition of five-story buildings, it is proposed to create a Fund for Assistance to the Renovation of the Housing Stock in the City of Moscow. In fact, a monster will appear on the capital's real estate market – a new government structure that will be able to do everything independently: build new projects, attract loans from banks for their implementation and sell real estate. If the package of amendments is adopted in its current form, then the new state structure will receive much more opportunities than developers who are currently working on the Moscow real estate market. The fund's field of activity is 4.5 thousand houses, located mostly in the TTC area: by relocating residents, the fund for supporting the fund will be able to build up these sites from scratch. It remains to understand who will take the helm of the new state corporation.
Do developers need a law on the demolition of five-story buildings
Most Muscovites accuse the development lobby of promoting the law. They say that developers need sites to build them up with new houses: they resettled residents of five-story buildings, built 16-story buildings in their place, and that's the profit. However, apartments in new buildings also need to be sold. And the market is currently extremely oversaturated. Today in the capital, according to the head of Moskomstroyinvest Konstantin Timofeev, the area of unsold apartments and apartments has reached 7 million square meters. meters. If someone is not afraid of this figure, then in the mid-2000s, the fattest and fattest time for the capital's construction complex, about 5 million square meters were erected in a year. meters of housing. And since the crisis of 2008-2010, much less residential real estate has been built in Moscow: for example, in 2016 3.34 million sq. meters.
Only those developers from whom the new fund acquires apartments for the first wave of resettlement can win, but there will be few of them
On average, according to Evgeny Skomorovsky, managing director of the ZIP Realty real estate agency, at present the share of unsold housing in the complexes already put into operation is 30%. For comparison, in 2013-2015, this share did not exceed 10%, and 7-8 years ago, most projects were sold out before construction was completed. At the same time, several dozen new projects enter the Moscow real estate market every year. Developers cannot quickly stop the conveyor, but it is difficult to imagine that in the current situation they are dreaming of new sites. They would build up and sell what they have. Only those developers from whom the new fund will acquire apartments for the first wave of resettlement can win, but there will be few of them. And they will win only over a short distance: after the monster fund starts implementing mega-projects in place of five-story blocks, they will no longer be able to compete with the giant. Private development may leave the Moscow real estate market.
What will be built on the site of the Khrushchev houses
Each of the parties involved in this program has its own “but” that nullifies all the apparent benefits. For the authorities, such a disadvantage is the discontent of the masses; for developers – the situation on the market, which is aggravated by the possible appearance of a new major player on the capital's real estate market; and for residents of five-story buildings – fear that their living conditions will be forcibly worsened. There is a “but” for the city. It would seem that it is good that the areas of Khrushchev, which in the future may turn into a kind of ghetto, will be resettled, and in their place … And here comes the main “but”! Demolition of 4.5 thousand houses is a huge territory, and if the authorities decided to globally transform the middle part of the city, then the architects should seriously work on the general concept of the new development. However, there is nothing yet – no plan, no architectural concept. It is not clear what will appear in place of the five-story buildings – business-class housing, stadiums, high-speed highways or new panel five-story buildings ?! However, while the authorities have time, and therefore a chance to correct these omissions.