As the experts of the Elite.ru portal learned from analysts, stagnation is expected next year, and in the expensive segment the indicators may even increase
The year 2023 was marked by records in the Moscow real estate market. It has updated sales maximums for all years both in new buildings and in the secondary market. But no further records can be expected. At the end of the year, a recession is already on the horizon, and the market freezes on the eve of stagnation. Experts from the Elitnoe.ru portal learned from analysts what awaits the industry in 2024. Some predict a decline in demand, but most expect stability, and even growth in the premium and elite class. It will become more difficult to get a mortgage, but for those who do not meet the new requirements, developers will begin to develop special programs. And by spring, a reduction in the mortgage rate following the key rate is possible.
Partner of the consulting company NF Group Andrey Solovyov:
< p>– In 2024, the “buyer’s market” scenario and the development of the segment will continue in the luxury housing market without signs of overheating. Low rates of price growth are predicted, which will create a sufficient volume of demand.
Interest in the primary market is expected to continue. The popularity of liquid projects in iconic locations will begin to grow as buyers seek to invest in real estate. Buyers interested in their own accommodation will be primarily interested in ready-made properties with an established infrastructure, a large range of quality characteristics and the availability of finishing.
At the same time, discount programs will gradually be phased out and discounts will be reduced. In the future, the rate of absorption of each project will depend on its quality characteristics, the presence of USP and their compliance with the needs of buyers. The market will begin to focus more on the quality and unique parameters of real estate, rather than on temporary promotions.
In general, the Moscow luxury residential real estate market in 2024 appears to be stable, with a focus on quality, moderate prices and an emphasis on the primary market and liquid projects.
Development Director of Rariteco Ekaterina Borisova:
– Most likely, the supply of high-budget projects will continue to grow in 2024. Currently, there are about 20 sites in the Central Administrative District, for which developers have been approved a general plan for the development of the territory. Competition between developers will intensify.
Important changes are expected in the field of lending to home buyers, but they do not affect the elite market. Demand will continue to recover and approach 2020-2021 levels. For buyers, the trend towards investing at home and in domestic real estate has already established itself. Against this background, prices will continue to gradually rise. But perhaps at a slower pace against the backdrop of increasing competition.
Director of the residential real estate sales department of the Summa Elements Group of Companies Svetlana Bardina:
– In my opinion, 2024 will be a successful year for most market players, especially developers of liquid premium projects. I believe that the authorities will be able to find a compromise regarding the fate of preferential programs. At the same time, the premium segment does not depend on mortgages with state support, and the income of premium clients is growing, including due to the development of import substitution. Therefore, we can expect stable sales rates and progressive price increases.
Sales Director of Izba Development (part of AFK Sistema) Viktor Tumarkin:
– We see enormous potential for the development of suburban real estate in 2024. This is largely due to the increasing growth rate of domestic tourism. However, prices for construction and, as a consequence, for the final product in the form of houses and cottages will rise. Over the next year, price increases are expected to range from 5-10% depending on the class of the project and its location.
We also see prospects for the further development of the trend for luxury suburban real estate: every year people are becoming more and more interested in this format. Moreover, in modern realities, many prefer turnkey projects with furniture. This provokes an increase in the competitive component, which directly affects the improvement of quality characteristics and customer service capabilities. Demand in this segment will remain stable or increase to 7-8% by the end of the year.
Founder of the Best-Novostroy company, Irina Dobrokhotova:
– We expect changes in the conditions for preferential mortgages next year, which can greatly affect demand. When the program becomes more targeted, the audience of demand will be precisely those categories of citizens to whom the benefits are directed. For other buyers, developers will begin to develop some special programs. In any case, developers will compete for demand, and there is a chance to see many new interesting marketing solutions.
To a greater extent, the change in conditions for preferential programs will affect the mass segment and partly the business class. Premium and luxury housing will continue to maintain a relatively low share of mortgages, and changes will affect them significantly less.
Commercial Director of Optima Development Dmitry Golev:
– I believe that the results of 2024 in the primary market of Moscow will be comparable to the results of 2023. Experts fear a sharp tightening of conditions for issuing preferential loans. However, there are prerequisites that there will be a more moderate option, especially during the period of the extremely high rate. Of course, modification of programs is possible, but not their complete collapse. At the same time, competent actions of the Central Bank should stabilize the economic situation, which will help maintain a high rate of sales. Investors will purchase mainly housing in the initial stages of construction, while final buyers will purchase apartments in ready-made houses with white box or fine finishing.
Sales Director of Dominanta Anton Konobeevsky:
– I don’t expect any critical changes in the market; it will balance out in any case. There may be certain short-term surges in demand or, conversely, a slowdown, but on a yearly scale the market will remain stable. If the key rate remains high, the number of projects being launched will begin to decrease, which will balance the decrease in demand due to expensive mortgages. A large amount of free funds from people and companies will help the market maintain stability and even grow to a limited extent.
Demand will remain at the same level: the population has money. They will gradually begin to limit mortgages with state support. It is possible that subsidy programs organized by banks and developers jointly will be banned.
The volume of supply will not change. Next year, previously launched projects will continue to be launched, replenishing the washed-out volumes. But as long as the key rate remains high, the launch of new projects will continue to decline. A deficit may form. At the same time, projects that will be released in 2024 began to be developed in 2022-2023, so the main decrease in the rate of release of new projects may occur as early as 2025.
According to realistic forecasts, the market expects moderate growth without sharp surges. If events develop in a negative scenario, prices will remain the same. Due to the increase in production costs and the cost of project financing, it will be problematic for developers to offer the market a significant price reduction.
Commercial Director of Sezar Group Olga Barabanova:
– The real estate market is facing another eventful year. Now we can make forecasts based on current facts, and they speak of the inevitability of systemic transformations. In 2024, the paradigm of attitudes toward purchasing real estate will begin to change. Mortgage is no longer a universal means that is “shown to everyone,” so the market will have to find a new foothold. Time will tell how global the changes will be. In all likelihood, the real estate market is entering a new cycle. Yes, with new circumstances, but reproducing the classic scenario of recession, followed by inevitable growth.
VSN Group CEO Yana Glazunova:< /p>
– Record rates of implementation, similar to the fall of 2023, are not expected. Against the background of the rise in the key rate and the subsequent protective mortgage rates of banks, as well as the introduction of restrictions on preferential mortgages, it is clear that demand in 2024 will definitely “cool down” in general, especially in the first quarter of the year.
A certain reduction in prices is expected in both the primary and secondary real estate markets in order to stimulate sales, but we should not expect record drops. This is justified by similar situations in the past, namely: at the end of 2014 and in February 2022, when a rollback was carried out after sharp surges in demand and prices. But the forecast for a decrease in secondary market budgets is expected to a greater extent, since rates become unaffordable for the buyer, and a decrease in prices will become a natural reaction.
Thus, the dynamics of the development of prices and demand in the real estate market directly depends on the monetary policy and how developers will respond to it by creating new promotions and marketing campaigns together with private banks.
General Director of the real estate brokerage agency Dolgov Pro Dmitry Dolgov:
– In 2024, we expect an increase in the cost of housing on the primary market within 3-4% monthly. This is due to rising prices for building materials and high inflation. In addition, the Central Bank increased the key rate by another 1%, which made credit products more expensive and, accordingly, less accessible. In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, the key rate may reach 19-20%, which will have an extremely negative impact on the entire real estate market: demand by the end of the year may fall by 25-30%, and a significant portion of projects will remain “in reserve” for developers.< /p>
However, companies will begin to more actively develop their unique offerings to stimulate demand, as this is vital. We believe that developers and key banks will develop completely new loan products and installment programs. We are 90% confident that the preferential programs will be extended. Perhaps the criteria for issuing mortgages will change, but we do not believe in “winding down” the programs.
Propertize CEO Roman Tkachev:
– In 2024, the real estate market will inevitably face the consequences of a reduction in preferential mortgages. It is not yet clear how much the volume of such loans will decrease, but it is already obvious that support measures will become more targeted. We can talk about maintaining preferential mortgages for representatives of certain professions: military personnel, employees of IT companies, etc. But it is already obvious that banks have begun to tighten conditions. Given the high key rate, such subsidies are increasingly expensive.
As a result, demand in the housing market will begin to gradually decline. Federal authorities are trying to ensure that this decline does not turn out to be sharp, but to maintain activity in the market it is necessary to offer additional sales tools. Digital financial assets may well be one solution. In the real estate market, DFA can partially offset the decline in demand. For developers, funds from private investors will then be more accessible than bank loans in the context of a rising key rate.
Director of the Mortgage Center of the Miel Group of Companies Yulia Ibragimova :
– Banks will react to an increase in the key rate, perhaps not this year, because the last ten days of December is the time for closing transactions, but in January 2024. With a key rate of 17-18%, banks will lend at 18.5% and above. This is already a lot. Remembering March 2022, when the key rate was 20%, mortgage transactions in the secondary market were spotty. We completed additional closures for clients forced to take out mortgages at such rates. In general, 20% is a figure more usual for consumer lending.
Additional measures may be taken to adjust the conditions of preferential programs, in particular, abandoning broad ones in favor of more targeted actions. Most likely, in 2024, requirements for the borrower (his solvency and overall level of debt), the size of the down payment, etc. will become tougher. Presumably, under the new parameters, it will become more difficult to get a mortgage.
But sooner or later the pendulum will swing towards easing these requirements and lowering rates. Those who took out loans at high rates will again have the opportunity to refinance. According to optimistic forecasts, by the end of the first quarter of 2024 the key rate will begin to decline and throughout the year it will be gradually reduced to 12%.
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