The lady age, demand falls. What’s next?


    Secondary suburban real estate market of Moscow region is in decline. According to some estimates, in the overall structure of the proposal there are up to 80% of ageing households. Thus purchasing capacity of Russians are at a low level. As a result, many owners of exhibited objects withdraw them from sale, and not waiting for implementation. What kind of houses can be called obsolete? And what should I do to their owners?

    Typical old house

    General the most common signs of an outdated home experts is called the bare facade of brick, low ceilings, narrow corridors, steep awkward stairs, small rooms and Windows, insufficient number of bathrooms.

    But aging at home can be divided into moral and physical. As the partner and commercial Director of KP “Golden Pine” Anton Alimov, each time period has its own architectural trends and in the area of special risk are the facilities built up to 2010 years.

    Director of suburban real estate “INKOM-real Estate” Anton Arkhipov typical example of the obsolete object calls built on six acres of four-story brick cottage with an area of about 600 sq m, with diesel or wood-burning heating. “We see here is a very large square footage, number of storeys excessive, outdated technology, and often pretentious, tacky architecture, — says the expert. — Similar structures are actively being built in the 90-ies, when not burdened with a sense of style people received the first lot of money and thus tried to emphasize their status.” As for the architectural component, to obsolete objects primarily include the so-called “home-chests” (parallelepipeds), said the General Director of Agency “the White Winds” Alexander Libov. Obsolete buildings often have spires. According to the head of sales Department of town and country real estate office “In Kiev” of “MIEL-offices of real estate” Svetlana Volskaya, they may be good from the point of view of durability. However, the modern buyer they are no longer in demand.

    In addition, to outdated, the General Director of “Alley property,” Ivan Kiselev include houses with basement and attic floors. Now they have ceased to be in demand. “If we take the ratio of use of first floor per unit, utilization of the second floor equal to 0.7, — says the expert. And utilization of the attic or basement usually is 0.3. The proportion of such houses of the total supply is about 30-40%. However, to assume that such houses will not be sold if they made normal repairs, I would still not. Still nowadays plays a major role price. And a house is a long standing of those who assess them in dollars, and in the pre-crisis rate.”

    If we talk about the luxury segment, some homes will not satisfied customers in the area, says the managing Director of “Metrium Premium” and a member of the affiliate network of CBRE Ilya Mogunov. Buyers now come to the question of housing choice with the European practicality. No one wants to pay more for “extra” rooms, which are mostly idle. More than a thousand square meters with a private home theatre, billiard room, pools are less demanded by the market. Also not in demand and the facilities built separately and away from infrastructure when the nearest store has to get in a few miles. Maintenance of such a facility is ten times more expensive than at home in an organized cottage village, at the expense of actually individual communication with a length of up to several kilometers, and personal service access road, security and other related things. For private houses the cost of maintenance may reach half a million rubles a month. “Country house, even in the elite class ceased to be a kind of proof of status and prosperity, — said Ilya Mogunov. Clients vote for practicality and savings on square metres, service and taxes.”

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    As for the physical deterioration, the old country houses often have cracks in the Foundation, poor wood processing, faulty roof, lists the main signs of Svetlana vol.


    There are several options for how the owner can do with an outdated house. “First, you can try to rent it out, turning from a source of losses into a profit — says Anton Arkhipov. — However, there are risks that large a company or, for example, corporate clients who are the main target audience, have something in it to spoil”.

    Another option is buying a home at a discount. “Most houses go at a discount — says Svetlana Volskaya. — Its size depends on how the seller adequately put the original price. It can be reduced to 2-3 times, if the house is highly overrated.” Ivan Kiselev said that the house that came out of the market, but are in good condition, be sold will be. The people who built these objects, they know the price and are unlikely to want to give them at a cost of one land. However, according to experts, they can be implemented at a discount of not less than 30% of the market value.

    Also, you can demolish the house on their own. Often this solved the property owners with favorable location not far from Moscow in the guarded cottage village. In this case, the owners of land receive compensation due to the high cost of sales.

    Another possible scenario is the reconstruction of a country house, in the case that, in spite of obsolescence, has a low percentage of physical deterioration. However, Alexander Libov makes an important caveat: to properly analyze the opportunity and price of restoration, and to predict the subsequent value of the object may be people who are professionally versed in the subject who have money and who can cheap to build and repair.

    “Primary” will win the demand?

    It is logical that part of the demand due to aging of the secondary offering and its reduction will flow to the primary market. Is there any hope that this situation will spur the players to bring new projects?

    If you look at the whole picture, either own or borrowed funds the majority of developers are now almost there, and investment in “fence” in the past, says Anton Arkhipov. The expert cites a sad statistic: for the first three quarters of 2017, the market appeared new settlements 60 mass segment (15+19+26) for the same period of 2018— 45 (14+21+10). And only 10-15% in the outgoing quarter of project construction, the rest is just land.

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    If we talk about the luxury market, it largely is already saturated, says Ivan Kiselev. And now there are large land parcels at relatively low prices to conclusion major projects. That land is worth too much. Today, therefore, more profitable to build townhouses. If earlier it was possible on 20 acres to build a house of 400 sqm, and sell him for 25-30 million rubles, but today the same plot is possible to build about 6 – 8 townhouses, each of which will cost 8 million rubles -13 “Some players are engaged in the reconception of the project, which is still in the “paper” stage — confirms Ilya Mogunov. — And it is even a partial transition to a more budget segment, for example, business class to a greater audience coverage”.

    If we talk about economy and business classes, in the mass they began to develop after the crisis of 2008. Then the “price bubble”, which grew very rapidly, burst, and return to the old prices was not to wait, says Ivan Kiselev. In addition, the government adopted a new law on the confiscation of agricultural land, which the owner does not handle 3 or more years. As a result, the landlords put on the market large amounts of cheap land. Over the last ten years, the facilities in economy and business classes were built many. And now the market lives mostly due to secondary offerings. Transactions take place mainly with them. The exception is a small number of proposals those projects that began to stagnate in the past years, and are now in the final stages of construction and initial sales. “Generally there are two categories of buyers, — says the expert. The first is people who want to live here and now. Regardless of what will happen to the market after a year and a half, you need to move for various reasons today. Someone gets married, someone gets divorced, someone’s children are born. These buyers look only a house “turnkey” in the secondary market. The second category of buyers can afford to wait until there is a repair. But such people prefer to buy land and build a house and completely by himself. Find ready house with full set of needed parameters is very difficult, and sometimes not even possible.”

    However, Anton Alimov believes that worthy projects will be developed and sold even in difficult times. In your project the expert observes the increase in the number of calls, visits and sales more than 25%. One of the factors of such dynamics the company believes the low quality of secondary offers in terms of environment houses. “People choose the projects with the concept of a uniform social and mental environment”, — concludes the expert.

    As long as the prerequisites to improve the situation in the secondary country market is not observed. And on “primary” in the coming years is likely to be relatively few new projects. In this economic situation will force developers to focus on the quality of their products.



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