No major shocks are expected in the second half of 2024, but developers will have to make more efforts to maintain demand
In the second half of 2024, the primary housing market will be affected by changes in preferential mortgage programs and increased rates of market lending. But after the summer slump, sales may begin to recover in the fall due to the emergence of new groups of solvent buyers and the renewal of incentive programs. Experts from the portal “Elitnoe.ru”, using data from the UDS company and highlighting eight main trends, will talk about how the situation in the “primary” will develop until the end of the year.
Below is the demand for preferential mortgages
The number of transactions involving preferential mortgages will decrease. This is mainly due to the end of preferential mortgages for new buildings at 8% (“Gospodderzhka-2020”) on July 1, 2024, which was one of the most accessible for a wide range of buyers. In addition, fewer purchases will be made for both family and IT mortgages. The terms and conditions have been updated for both programs: for the first – also on July 1, for the second – a month later. In the family mortgage, the changes are mainly related to narrowing the circle of possible borrowers and raising the rate to 6% for residents of the Far Eastern Federal District. Moscow and St. Petersburg were excluded from IT mortgages, and in the regions it was modified, and new requirements for borrowers arose.
Programs from developers
Developers will offer joint programs with banks to stimulate demand. This could be mortgages at lower rates for certain categories of borrowers, for example, for doctors, teachers or employees of partner companies. There will be more new buildings with the possibility of arranging a tranche mortgage with a low down payment and an extended payment plan.
Growing interest in market mortgages
On the contrary, more transactions are planned for market mortgages. Previously, the share of such purchases in new buildings did not exceed 10%, but now it may grow to 15% by the end of 2024. It will include equity participation agreements for point development projects and in locations without new construction planned in the near future. Another option is transactions in recently launched complexes, where housing is sold at a starting price and will become more expensive over time. In such cases, it is more profitable to buy an apartment under the current conditions, so that later, when mortgage rates decrease, you can refinance the loan.
New groups of solvent buyers
The primary housing market will be entered by specialists from companies that carry out government orders, families of military personnel and other professions, whose incomes continue to increase. Investors who kept money in profitable deposits and decided to “reinvest” in real estate when interesting options appear may also be among such buyers.
Price stability
There is no need to expect a noticeable reduction in prices. After all, developers' construction costs have increased. Construction materials and engineering equipment have become more expensive, energy costs have increased, and the wages of builders and engineering workers have also increased.
More often, promotions
Although there will be no direct price reduction, the frequency of special promotions launched by developers will increase, during which the cost of a pool of apartments may decrease. You should also count on special offers for the purchase of housing, parking spaces in underground parking lots, storage rooms, etc.
Postponement of the start of new projects
A number of developers will prefer to postpone the start of sales of new projects and queues in complexes already under construction until the end of this year. It is possible that the launch will be postponed until the situation on the mortgage lending market stabilizes.
Government support measures
There is a possibility that government support measures for developers and homebuyers will be announced by the end of 2024. Construction of residential real estate is a priority area of state policy, and without creating conditions for increasing exposure, it is impossible to achieve the intended goals. Of course, financial support is also required for buyers. Most likely, targeted programs will appear for those segments of the population that will not be able to solve the housing issue without state support.
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