Mortgage under 25%, Bridge loans at 46%, Donald Trump and other problems of the real estate market
If the mood of developers gathered this year at the Mref forum (Moscow Real Estate Forum), then the phrase: “” “” “” ” Whether there will still be … “. “On the sidelines of full of pessimistic moods : players of the real estate market complain both at a mortgage at 25% per annum and at Bridges at 46% and the victory of Donald Trump,” said the owner of the Rodina group, Vladimir Cheek.
Trump's return to the post of US President can lead to an increase in the dollar and tightening sanctions against Russia, but if this happens, then someday in the future. Whereas the first two reasons – the harsh reality of the Russian real estate market .
the main reason for pessimism, experts see a drop in demand
“The cost of construction is growing twice as fast as the price For housing, ”continues Vladimir Shchekin. The main problem, he is sure that money for developers has risen in price : Currently, the cost of Bridge loans reaches 46% per annum. “Today is a very large amount of corporate debt,” Mikhail Goldberg, a representative of Dom.rf, agrees with him. “The developers were in an extremely difficult situation.”
But the cost of construction is growing not only because of high rates on corporate loans. The managing partner of the FSK Group of Companies Alexei Almazov notes that greatly risen the building materials : the prices for some positions increased by 200%. And the President of NOSTROY Anton Glushkov added that today many construction Companies experience personnel hunger . First of all, this happened due to a strong decrease in the number of migrants from neighboring abroad: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, etc. “We cannot replenish this gap within Russia, as a result, the average salary has grown by 35%recently,”- Mr. Glushkov explains. The developer does not exclude that in the future this problem will be solved at the expense of migrants from other countries, for example, India, but so far there is no one to build.
However, the main reason for pessimism experts see the drop in demand. In the past four years, the main driver’s driver was a preferential mortgage. However, most of her programs were closed in June of this year, after which, according to Mikhail Goldberg, the sales rates of housing on average in Russia fell by 25%. In November, the situation was aggravated due to the increase in the Central Bank of the rate to 21%, as a result of which the mortgage went up to 25%. “We will see the results of these changes in 10-12 months,” said Alexei Almazov. “The construction market is inert and reacts to the changes slowly.”
“until the prices are changing, but in the near future some decrease will occur,” said Alexei Goldberg. It turns out that the cost of construction is growing, and the prices are still stagnating, but soon, apparently, they will begin to sink. Developers were in an extremely difficult situation . Today, according to Dominanta Dominanta, General Director Dominanta, they “cut the bones”: they optimize the business, removing all the superfluous from it. Among the Ballast may be architectural elements, spacious apartments, high -quality building materials and many other “excesses”, which modern housing buyers are used to. “But for developers, this is currently a matter of survival,” adds Denis Borodako. – They are now like swimmers who took a sip of air and ducked under the water, but how much they will stay there is not clear. ”
The capital's developers should pay attention to the regions in which software subsidies remain
< P> And if the “scenting swimming” is delayed, then not everyone “emerges”. And the current situation, Mikhail Goldberg is sure, will remain for the next two years . It is especially difficult, according to the expert, will implement new projects that only enter or enter the market in the near future.
However, with expensive money for housing construction, the situation may be resolved. According to Mr. Golberg, the authorities plan to introduce loans for developers with a subsidized rate of 12-14% per annum . /wp-content/uploads/2025/02/85FF790CBEF7900F09913AFBD53478F.JPG “/>
The rest of the drowning persons-the work of the drowning ones themselves. Anton Glushkov is sure that the capital's developers should pay attention to the regions in which software subsidies are still left. Alexey Almazov believes that the life of developers will greatly facilitate partnerships with landowners . Vladimir Shchekin and Anatoly Klinkov from the A101 Group of Companies are ready to involve the company as partners, who will therefore represent the service and trading infrastructure of residential complexes. And Denis Borodako is sure that the main partner of the developer is the bank. And in the future, banks will have to revise the working conditions with developers.
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