According to analysts' forecast, in 2018 apartment prices in Moscow will decline, but realtors promise growth
The question” what will happen to apartment prices this year “worries all potential home buyers. The Elitnoye.RU portal interviewed analysts and representatives of large real estate agencies, but the experts did not come to a common opinion.
Economist, Associate Professor of the Faculty of Finance and Banking RANEPA affairs Sergey Khestanov:
– I think that if we talk about ruble prices, then in the near future the Moscow housing market will continue to stagnate. And in dollars – there is a potential for decline. At the moment, two factors seriously affect the dollar/ruble exchange rate in our country. The first is the upcoming presidential elections in Russia: the authorities are trying with all their might to strengthen the national currency, but the elections are just around the corner, and then the ruble will no longer be given as much attention as it is now. The second factor is world oil prices. Production in the United States is growing steadily. So, this week for the first time in 50 years, oil production exceeded 10 million barrels per day. This means that sooner or later oil prices will drop, followed by the ruble. I think that the ruble will fall in price by 10-15%. But when and how this will happen is difficult to say now.
CIAN Leading Analyst Alexander Pypin:
– In the primary market, prices have been declining for a long time. It's just that it's not explicitly happening. For example, through subsidized mortgage rates, free registration of rights or finished finishes. And there are many such moments! Developers are forced to reduce the cost, because people do not have the funds to buy housing. Recently, the percentage of mortgage transactions has been constantly growing: real money is being replaced with borrowed money.
Developers will be “treating buns” to buyers at least until the end of 2018
Why is the decline in disguise? It's simple – people are scared to buy goods that are getting cheaper. If this is done openly, then the psychological factor will be added to the economic factor. Apartments will stop buying and those who still can afford it. And when a developer gives gifts to customers and “treats them with buns,” most people do not notice the fall in prices. I believe that developers will “treat buns” to buyers at least until the end of 2018. And the number of “goodies” will grow!
It is difficult to predict what will happen next … The amount of money from the population will not increase, but the commissioning of new housing will decline. I think that in the next three years it will decrease by 10-15% in relation to the current moment. New buildings will become a fairly reliable investment tool, but not the best one for investment. Of course, it will be possible to make money locally by buying an apartment “at the foundation stage” or next to a metro station under construction, but globally it is not worth relying on price increases in the real estate segment in the next three years.
Chairman of the Board of Directors of BEST-Novostroy Irina Dobrokhotova:
– In the coming 2018, the tightening of legislation will primarily affect the pricing in the market of new buildings. From July 1, 2018, developers will switch to a new business model that will seriously complicate their life. Accordingly, the upcoming changes will push the market to the earliest possible withdrawal of previously planned projects for implementation, which is already evidenced by the increased interest of investors in sites with a full package of documents. Thus, there is every reason to believe that in the near future, the primary housing market is expected to receive a significant replenishment of new proposals, which, against the backdrop of tougher competition, will restrain price increases.
< strong> Managing partner of Metrium Group Maria Litinetskaya:
– Now the preconditions for price growth are being formed on the Moscow primary housing market. On the one hand, there is an unprecedented demand from buyers, which is expressed in an unprecedented number of prisoners of preschool institutions. On the other hand, there is a tightening of legislation in relation to the financial side of the business of developers, which will ultimately lead to higher costs and higher prices. Changes in legislation will come into force in mid-2018, so a slight downward price correction is possible in the first half of the year. It is associated with the entry to the market of a large number of new projects from developers who will strive to start implementation even within the framework of the current legislation.
The cost of construction will increase, and with it the prices
In the second In half of the year, the situation will change: development activity will decline, since not all developers will be able to restructure their business to meet the requirements of the legislation. The cost of construction will increase, and with it the prices. But the level of competition will remain high, which will prevent a noticeable strong increase in value. Thus, according to our forecasts, in the mass segment prices by the end of 2018 will increase by about 2% (up to 159-160 thousand rubles per sq. M.), In business and premium classes, due to the increase in supply volume, the average price tag will decrease by 2%. % and 4% respectively.
