Market experts interviewed by the Elitnoe.ru portal believe that real estate prices in 2019 will not change much
Every home buyer is worried about what will happen to apartment prices. Should I buy it now or should I wait? The long-term decline in prices on the Moscow market, which began after the crisis, has already ended. 2018 was marked by a small, but steady growth in the cost of housing. The main reason was the unprecedented activity of buyers, fueled by legislative changes and the associated release of numerous new projects, as well as affordable mortgages.
In the new year, rates on housing loans will become higher, as the Central Bank in September 2018 raised the key rate for the first time in four years, and in December there was a second increase. That is, developers may face a decrease in demand, which will force them to compete with prices. On the other hand, the costs of the developers themselves will increase due to amendments to the law on shared construction and the transition to escrow accounts, as well as a 2% increase in VAT. In which direction the price scales will swing in this situation, representatives of real estate agencies told the Elitnoye.ru portal.
Ekaterina Rumyantseva, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Kalinka Group:
– We expect that prices for elite new buildings in Moscow in 2019 will increase due to increased costs for developers due to changes in Federal Law-214, transition to escrow accounts and a 2% increase in VAT. Developers will have to factor these costs into the project price. Given the growing competition between projects, the price increase is likely to be moderate – about 5-7%.
There is no single price trend on the market yet. In half of the projects, prices at the end of 2018 remained the same, some went up (often as a result of the fulfillment of the sales plan or the entry of the project to a new stage of construction readiness). Also, in a number of projects, developers have offered buyers various discounts and discounts.
Managing Director of Metrium Premium Ilya Menzhunov:
– In 2018, prices for urban elite real estate in the primary segment were growing. According to the results of three quarters, elite apartments have risen in price by 19%, and apartments – by 7%. New buildings of premium class (housing) increased in price by 6%, and apartments in the same segment – by 5.6%. I believe that this year the rise in prices continued against the background of further weakening of the ruble, accelerating inflation, as well as the reform of shared construction.
As for the suburban elite housing market, in 2019 we expect an increase in prices in certain locations. Currently, the market is mainly occupied by small developers who are building several households. Such a product is in great demand at the present time and, of course, it will be very different in price from the secondary “illiquid”. At the same time, in 2018, we saw how prices rose sharply in certain locations. For example, in the cottage village “Discord” (pictured above) the growth of the average cost of one hundred square meters by 45% coincided with the construction of a school next door. If in 2017 the land here cost 55 thousand dollars per hundred square meters, then in 2018 it increased to 80 thousand dollars per hundred square meters. Such changes can be observed in the future, so potential buyers should carefully study the local market for high-value households.
Anatoly Dovgan, Director of the Savills Market Analysis and Monitoring Department in Russia:
< p>– 2018 was marked by a record number of new projects entering the capital's elite residential real estate market. Sales began in 21 complexes, totaling about 174,000 sq. M. meters, or 1460 apartments and apartments. It is obvious that the supply in the premium class new buildings market segment will only grow in 2019. Already, 10 projects have been announced, in which about 1600 lots are planned. Thus, we see that the estimated volume of new properties is higher than the same indicator of the previous year.
A rise in prices at the level of 8-10% per year is expected only in certain projects
With this course of events, the average price for apartments and apartments in elite new buildings will remain at the same level this year (as of December 2018 – 873 thousand rubles). Fluctuations will be insignificant: from 3 to 5%. Due to the fact that in the new complexes, first of all, inexpensive objects will be sold, by the end of 2019 the prices for the options offered for sale are likely to be higher by at least 10-15%. It should be noted that there are always the most demanded lots on the market, the cost of which can grow up to 20-25% over a year.
Olga Shirokova, Director of Consulting and Analytics at Knight Frank:
– In 2018, in the high-budget residential real estate market, for the first time in the last year and a half, an increase in the weighted average price was noted – by 7% in annual dynamics. At the moment, the cost of one square meter is 765 thousand rubles. According to the preliminary results of the year, in the elite segment there is an increase in the indicator by 16% per year (980 thousand rubles per square meter), in the premium segment – by 3% (578 thousand rubles per square meter). In general, the positive dynamics is explained by the release of a new offer at a high price – large lots in the Barkli Gallery club house and Polyanka 44, a new line in Bolshaya Dmitrovka IX (pictured below), as well as an increase in the stage of construction readiness of the facilities. p>
According to our forecasts, in general this year the average prices on the market will continue to grow – by another 3-5% due to a decrease in the supply volume, as well as due to objective prerequisites: an increase in VAT and the key rate, a change in the scheme of work with escrow accounts … However, the formed significant volume of supply may have the opposite effect on prices. In a highly competitive environment, sales may drop sharply with an increase in the value of the lot, therefore, an increase in prices at the level of 8-10% per year is expected only in certain projects.
Sergey Kolosnitsyn, Director of Residential Real Estate Department, Penny Lane Realty :
– In general, prices will not change significantly in 2019. Only from July of the new year, developers will be forced to switch to project financing, and in subsequent projects a bank interest will certainly be included. I think, taking into account the inertia of all processes in the construction sector, we will see a significant increase in prices in the primary market only in a year. In 2019, a large volume of previously released complexes will be sold, and prices for them, if they grow, will only be in proportion to the stage of construction.
You should not expect any shortage of supply and a sharp jump in prices
Thus, the primary market will still remain a serious competitor for the secondary market, and the pricing policy that has developed in the conditions of competition among developers will become a factor, if not to reduce prices in the secondary market, then precisely to keep them at the same level. As for the suburban market, the average price in dollars is declining (1.7 million this year and 1.8 million last), and remains unchanged in rubles. Most likely, this trend will continue – prices will slightly adjust downward. Otherwise, sellers will not be able to sell their properties in conditions of relatively low demand.
Denis Popov, Managing Partner of Contact Real Estate:
– In 2019, a decrease in the output of new projects and a decrease in the number of transactions due to the transition of developers to escrow accounts is expected in the primary market of elite real estate in Moscow. As a result, according to our estimates, prices may rise by 7-10% in rubles, and in dollars – depending on the exchange rate. At the same time, a significant volume of new projects came out last year: market participants have something to sell, which means that one should not expect any shortage of supply and a sharp jump in prices. Mortgages will also support prices, which will remain in demand despite the growth in rates. The secondary market for elite housing will feel stable this year: the owners have adapted to market prices and found a balance with buyers, which contributes to the revival of the market.
Head of Analytics and Project Consulting Est-a-Tet Natalia Blankova:
– In 2019, not only will the cost of construction be adjusted, but the procedure for entering the implementation of new projects in which the price of sq. meters relative to the complexes in 2018 will increase by the size of the cost adjustment – by 5-7%.
Excise taxes on fuel, increase in the cost of building materials, additional requirements for deductions to the compensation fund and increase in VAT up to 20% add another 2%. As a result, property prices for the buyer can rise by 10%. In high segments, the increase in cost will largely depend on the project itself and on changes in the dollar exchange rate – the maximum price increase can be 10-15%.
Alexander Shibaev, Director of Consulting, Analytics and Research Department at Blackwood:
– Since the beginning of 2018, the average price of primary elite lots has increased by 4%, to 699.5 thousand rubles per sq. meter. The growth was associated with the washing out of the most liquid objects from the market in new projects that started in 2017-2018 at rather low starting prices, as well as with the rise in prices for complexes under construction due to an increase in readiness. At the same time, the increase in cost was restrained by the appearance of a large volume of supply in new projects at starting prices in the “premium” class.
The growth of the indicator may be affected by the increase in housing prices in connection with the start of legislative changes
In 2019, prices will continue to rise, but not more than 10%. In the “elite” subclass, a more confident increase is expected, about 10%, as in 2018. In the premium class, if a new offer is released at low starting prices, the average cost of lots, while maintaining the current demand, will increase at a moderate pace. In addition, the growth of the indicator may be affected by the increase in housing prices in connection with the start of legislative changes from the second half of 2019.
received in 2018, as well as complexes that are still being sold in a closed mode will be put into open sales. Thus, the market will be replenished with 18-22 projects with more than 80 thousand square meters. meters of real estate, of which eight are currently in private sales.
